"A prolonged shutdown would be blamed on Donald Trump and the GOP since they control the government. Trump can spin it as a Democrat-driven crisis, but most Americans wouldn't believe him. This was why Republicans were so eager to trigger government shutdowns under Barack Obama. No matter how much he railed against tea-party nihilists, he was the president, and he had to suffer the consequences of a shutdown."
"Congressional Democrats do have leverage, and they should drive it home to protect Obamacare health-insurance subsidies. Premiums will skyrocket if the GOP majority has its way, and some Republicans at least understand that they will pay the political cost. Americans in 2026 would be hit with far higher health-care bills and naturally look at the Trump government as the source of their financial pain."
"On a practical level, it can backfire, as Russell Vought, Trump's OMB director, prepares for the mass firing of federal employees. Vought is a revanchist who wants to shrink the government as much as possible, and he will not hesitate to cripple federal agencies further. As devastating as DOGE was, Vought will be willing to cut the government to the bone."
Democrats may benefit politically from a government shutdown because public blame would fall on Donald Trump and the GOP, who control government operations. A shutdown could be leveraged to protect Obamacare health-insurance subsidies, preventing sharp premium increases that would provoke voter anger in 2026. However, a shutdown risks severe administrative damage: OMB director Russell Vought plans mass firings and deep cuts that could cripple federal agencies. Tariffs have been a political liability for Trump amid persistent inflation, and high import taxes without a plan to rebuild domestic industry are unwise. Economic messaging remains a pivotal battleground.
Read at Intelligencer
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