"A Gallup party identification poll, which involves calling voters to ask which party they consider themselves part of and which Enten said has historically "been quite telling of elections," shows Democrats ahead of Republicans by 7 points. It's a big shift from the first quarter of 2025, when Republicans and Democrats were tied. Enten also said that Democrats are "actually doing better at this point than they were during the 2018 cycle," when Democrats won control of the House of Representatives."
"He also said the party is doing "considerably, considerably better" than during the 2022 midterm cycle, when Republicans took back the House and Democrats took control of the Senate. Enten said that if the seven-point lead holds, "There is no historical precedent for Republicans actually gaining House seats." "The Democrats gain it everywhere that looks like what Gallup shows right now," he said."
Gallup party identification polling shows Democrats ahead of Republicans by seven points. Gallup party identification polling involves calling voters to ask which party they consider themselves part of and has historically been quite telling of elections. The seven-point lead marks a substantial shift from the first quarter of 2025, when party identification was tied. Democratic standing currently exceeds their position during the 2018 cycle and is considerably stronger than during the 2022 midterms. If the seven-point lead holds, historical precedent indicates Republicans have not gained House seats under similar conditions, and Democrats would likely gain seats across districts reflected by Gallup's figures.
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