"Dalio has for years used his Big Cycle framework to caution that the U.S. is deep into what he calls Stage 5-the "pre-breakdown phase" characterized by bad financial conditions and internal conflict-and risks teetering into Stage 6, what he calls the "final and most painful stage," marked by the breakdown of the existing order via civil war or revolution. In the past, he has sounded the alarm about widening economic inequality and political polarization."
""Many people are waiting to see whether President Trump will continue to fight, which I believe would risk pushing us over the brink into a more clear civil war, or if he will make an attempt to pull us back from the brink by appealing for peace, promising and showing that the justice system will handle the shootings appropriately, and curtail ICE activities,""
A historical Big Cycle framework identifies six stages across roughly 80 years that track a society's monetary, domestic, and international order. Current U.S. crises, including federal agents killing people in Minneapolis and the skyrocketing national debt, indicate movement from a pre-breakdown phase toward a potentially violent breakdown. Stage 5 features bad financial conditions and internal conflict; Stage 6 would entail collapse of the existing order through civil war or revolution. Leadership choices, especially by the president, could either escalate toward conflict or de-escalate through appeals for peace, judicial accountability, and restrained enforcement actions. Widening inequality, political polarization, and monetary instability are central drivers of this risk.
Read at Fortune
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