PSC's Vision Forecast sees tight budgets, high uncertainty through the next decade

"Data disruption. For example, many of the agency IT forecasts and dashboards have been dark since March. DOGE's impact. The organization may have wound down much of its operations, but its impact will be felt for a long time. Government-wide Software-as-a-Service agreements. These are proliferating and the General Services Administration is leading here with its OneGov strategy. Artificial intelligence. These technologies are accelerating, but with few guardrails."

"PSC conducts research for the Vision forecast through the PSC Foundation. The forecast is based on analysis of procurement and budget data, plus several not-for-attribution interviews and roundtable discussions with hundreds of government and industry officials. PSC volunteers do the bulk of the interviews, analysis and data gathering. Factors such as DOGE, the reduction in the federal workforce and the possibility of more budget rescissions increase the difficulty of making a decisive forecast."

Five major forces are reshaping the federal services market: data disruption with many agency IT forecasts and dashboards dark since March; DOGE's lasting impact despite winding down operations; proliferation of government-wide Software-as-a-Service agreements led by GSA's OneGov strategy; accelerating artificial intelligence deployments with few guardrails; and culture clashes as diversity, equity and inclusion programs end, political appointees assume CIO roles, and acquisitions prioritize speed over process. Research for the forecast used procurement and budget data, plus interviews and roundtables conducted by PSC volunteers. Forecasting remains difficult amid workforce reductions and potential budget rescissions, with steady but modest growth expected.

Read at Nextgov.com