Professor Benjamin Cohen posits that California may declare its independence from the US in 2035, driven by growing friction with the federal government. A military response from a future president is considered plausible, raising the risk of armed conflict. The notion of secession reflects a broader movement towards 'dream states,' where community identity motivates populations. A YouGov poll indicates that 40 percent of Americans foresee the likelihood of a second civil war and attribute it to divisions between Democrats and Republicans, rather than state-by-state conflict.
"President [JD] Vance has threatened a military takeover of state government in Sacramento, backed by National Guard troops from nearby red states. Armed conflict looks increasingly possible," Cohen wrote in a fictitious news bulletin about his hypothetical scenario.
"Identity can be a very powerful motivator," the professor said. "That's why I worry about the risk of civil war. When it comes to something as strong as a sense of community identity, rationalism falls by the wayside."
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