No Politics Is Local

"Tomorrow's elections make the case that the opposite is more accurate these days: No politics is local. In the Virginia and New Jersey governor's races, Donald Trump is a central issue for voters. In the New York City mayoral election, things are even more complicated: Trump endorsed Andrew Cuomo this evening, the culmination of months of sparring between the president and front-runner Zohran Mamdani, and analysts are debating what Mamdani's expected victory would mean for the national Democratic Party."

"The nationalization of politics is a familiar story, especially in Congress. As the parties have become more polarized in recent years, voters have become less willing to cross the aisle or split their ballot between Democrats and Republicans-especially because animosity toward the other party is a central part of the polarization. The weakening of local media outlets, especially newspapers, has also left citizens far more informed and invested in national political dynamics than matters closer to home."

"At one time, a Democrat could win a House seat in North Dakota, and California might send a Republican to the Senate. Don't expect to see either of those feats repeated soon. As the political scientist Lee Drutman writes, how a given district voted for president "now explains 98% of House outcomes. In the Senate, it's 91%. In 2000, roughly half of Senate races were competitive enough that candidate quality could flip them. By 2024, only 12% were.""

National political dynamics are overtaking local factors in elections, with national figures and issues central in state and municipal contests. Donald Trump's influence appears prominently in Virginia and New Jersey governor races and in the New York City mayoral race, where endorsements and partisan conflict affect voter choice and implications for the national Democratic Party. International issues such as the Israeli-Palestinian conflict surface even in municipal campaigns. Intensifying partisan polarization has reduced ticket-splitting and heightened interparty animosity. Declines in local media, particularly newspapers, have shifted citizen attention toward national politics, making presidential vote patterns highly predictive of congressional outcomes.

Read at The Atlantic