"The Yale Youth Poll, an undergraduate-led project, questioned 3,426 registered voters nationwide, including a hefty oversample of 1,706 people aged 18 to 34. Of all Democratic potentials, despite no one having declared their candidacy, Newsom leads the primary field with 25%, ahead of former Vice President Kamala Harris at 18%, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) at 16%, and ex-Biden Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg at 14%."
"Among Republican participants, Vice President JD Vance dominates a Trump-free 2028 primary, pulling 51% among GOP voters. But when respondents are asked to imagine an unconstitutional third term for Trump, the president still takes 50%, with Vance slumping to 19% a reminder of how tightly the party's current form remains bound to Trump. Younger Republicans are notably cooler, with Trump failing to win majority support among voters under 30. According to the poll, Trump's appeal among young people has soured since his narrow spring 2025 uptick. Voters aged 18 to 34 now disapprove of his performance by margins of 30 points or more, and Democrats hold double-digit leads with every under-35 age band on the generic congressional ballot."
"Strategically, Republicans say they want more Trumpism, not less, with 55% of GOP voters who want the party to prioritize turning out its base. Democrats, by contrast, are split between firing up their core voters and moving to the center, a dilemma now playing out against a generational backdrop in which Newsom looks increasingly like the party's compromise candidate between youth appeal and perceived electability."
A nationwide Yale Youth Poll of 3,426 registered voters, including 1,706 aged 18–34, shows Gavin Newsom leading the Democratic primary field at 25%, followed by Kamala Harris (18%), Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (16%), and Pete Buttigieg (14%). Democratic voters rate Newsom as the strongest general-election option, with 85% seeing him as most likely to beat a generic Republican. On the GOP side, JD Vance tops a Trump-free primary at 51%, but Trump would still capture 50% if imagined receiving an unconstitutional third term. Young voters now disapprove of Trump by 30+ points, and Republicans favor base-focused Trumpism while Democrats remain split on strategy.
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