"The new 10-year budget forecasts from the Congressional Budget Office, issued in mid-February, presents an outlook that's considerably worse than the already dire scenario the agency issued a year earlier. The CBO's bottom line: On balance, the tax reductions and spending hikes in the One Big Beautiful will increase the persistent shortfalls between revenues and outlays by amounts that swamp the extra take from tariffs, and the fleeting jump in GDP we're witnessing right now."
"It presents detailed projections for all federal spending and revenue categories, the impact of new legislation, GDP, interest rates and sundry other economic metrics, and of course deficits and debt, over the current fiscal year and following decade. What's so concerning about this update covering 2026 to 2036 is that it displays "primary deficits" that are even larger those posited in last year's report."
The Congressional Budget Office's 10-year forecast for 2026–2036 shows a markedly worse fiscal outlook than a year earlier. Tax cuts and spending increases embedded in current policy will widen persistent shortfalls between revenues and outlays, overwhelming modest tariff revenues and a temporary GDP boost. Primary deficits—tax-and-spending gaps excluding interest—are projected to grow larger than previously estimated. The government must borrow to cover those deficits, and rising deficits will drive sharply higher interest costs on the national debt. Within a decade, interest expense will consume a much larger share of resources, crowding out programs like Medicare and Defense.
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