"Total nonfarm payroll employment edged down by 92,000 in February, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.4 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment in health care decreased, reflecting strike activity. Employment in information and federal government continued to trend down."
"The honest truth here is that the labor market has been softening since the start of 2025, and the Fed won't pivot away from neutral policy to accommodative until jobless claims rise. We can't have an economy being held up by just two job sectors, as we have seen over the last year."
"With inflation still above 2% and the unemployment rate below 5%, the hawks at the Federal Reserve really do need to see the labor market breaking before committing to the next step. This has been my premise since the end of 2022."
February employment fell by 92,000 jobs with the unemployment rate holding at 4.4%, according to BLS data. Health care employment decreased due to strike activity, while information and federal government sectors continued declining. The labor market has been softening since early 2025, with negative revisions compounding concerns. Oil prices spiked above $90 following geopolitical tensions, while the 10-year Treasury yield experienced significant volatility, initially declining after the jobs report before rising on Iran-related comments, then falling again. Mortgage rates remained relatively flat throughout the day. The Federal Reserve is unlikely to shift from neutral to accommodative policy until jobless claims rise substantially, as inflation remains above 2% and unemployment stays below 5%.
#employment-data #federal-reserve-policy #oil-markets #bond-market-volatility #labor-market-softening
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