Mamdani Is a New York Miracle, Not a National Model for Democrats

"The thing about off-year elections is that there are so few of them that it's tempting to over-interpret their significance. That's particularly true when the key races are viewed as tests for a Democratic Party that is terrified about its past and future and unsure of its identity. Right now the four off-year contests that are getting the most national attention are the mayoral race in New York City, gubernatorial races in New Jersey and Virginia, and the Prop 50 retaliatory gerrymandering ballot initiative in California."

"He beat the front-runner, former governor Andrew Cuomo, like a drum in the Democratic primary, overcoming Cuomo's huge advantage in money and name ID. And despite an extraordinary deployment of attack ads and oppo research by a coalition of opponents that stretched from the city's Democratic Establishment to the Trump White House, Mamdani has failed to self-destruct as many expected."

Off-year elections are rare, which creates a temptation to over-interpret their significance. Four contests gained national attention: New York City mayor, New Jersey and Virginia governorships, and California's Prop 50. Prop 50 appears likely to win. Democratic advantages in New Jersey and Virginia appear fragile. Zohran Mamdani, an obscure young Muslim socialist state legislator, ran an upbeat, issues-oriented campaign and overcame New York City's complex political obstacles. Mamdani defeated former governor Andrew Cuomo in the Democratic primary despite Cuomo's advantage in money and name recognition and resisted coordinated attack ads and opposition. Mamdani has strong appeal to young voters and progressives yearning for change.

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