"Trump lost it [New Jersey] in 2020 by 16 points. He lost it by six last time around. So the number one thing that the Republican candidate needs to do is he needs to build on the Trump bump. He needs to get those people who moved into the Trump column between 2020 and 2024, he needs to them out in an off-year election. To do that, he needs hold on to the Trump Hispanic and non-White gains."
"If I were a betting man, I'd say New Jersey could be an upset, the Republicans are gonna gain in the legislature. In Virginia, I think we're going to have a surprise because the Republicans are gonna hold on to the AG slot. And I think they're gonna keep their losses in the House of Delegates to less than what the Democrats hoped they would get."
"And in New York, we're gonna get the gift that keeps on giving. We're gonna have a Democratic socialist mayor who wins in the low 50s or mid 50s, in a city where 62% of the eligible voters are registered Democrats, 22% are registered independents, and only 16% are Republicans, conservatives, or members of little, fringe, left-wing parties."
In New Jersey, the Republican gubernatorial nominee can capitalize on President Trump’s 2024 gains by turning out voters who moved to the Trump column between 2020 and 2024 and by holding Trump-era Hispanic and nonwhite support in an off-year election. In Virginia, Republicans are expected to retain the attorney general office and limit losses in the House of Delegates. In New York City, a Democratic socialist mayoral candidate could win with low-to-mid 50s support despite a large Democratic registration advantage. Race-specific issues and Democrats’ focus on Trump are expected to shape these outcomes.
Read at www.mediaite.com
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