"Look, I think there's basically three elements to the victories, MSNBC's Hayes said. There's what we call thermostatic public opinion which is when one party has the White House, the other party tends to do better in the off year elections. He continued, Then you've got like, Donald Trump is really unpopular! causing Stewart to quip, How dare you! How can I say this? They're going to cancel me, Hayes joked. You know, he's at 39%."
"The national mood is dyspeptic and disgruntledand then the third layer is, what can Democrats control? Those first two layers Democrats don't make. The third layer is candidate recruitment, messaging, campaigns. And I thinkthat's the place you're talking about how they're going to screw it up or how are they going to build on it, that's the place where they can control stuff, and I think they did a lot that was right."
"I think the Democrats are still a mess. I truly believe they're a mess because there is, what this shows to me is, again, there is this underlying potential energy within the United States of America that is much larger than I think any of us could have imagined. And channelling that energy directionally will be the challenge for whoever wants to harness it. I still don't believe they're doing that."
Democratic victories occurred in recent gubernatorial and mayoral races and California's Prop 50 redistricting measure passed. Three elements helped produce those wins: thermostatic public opinion favoring the party out of the presidency during off-year elections, high unpopularity of Donald Trump, and controllable campaign factors such as candidate recruitment, messaging, and campaign execution. Controllable factors determine whether Democrats will build on or squander the gains. Significant organizational disarray and lack of clear direction risk failing to channel broad underlying public energy into sustained political advantage. The 2026 environment could remain favorable, but effective execution over the next year will be decisive.
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