How the Government Shutdown Will End

"The federal government shutdown that began at the stroke of midnight on October 1 wasn't an accident, a matter of miscommunication, or the result of congressional leaders getting behind on their paperwork. Both major parties went into it with eyes open, having for their own reasons spurned the negotiations that usually head off these destructive events at the last minute. It would be naive, then, to expect the shutdown to end quickly or simply."

"Democrats have a fairly elaborate list of demands they want met before voting en masse to reopen the government. Republicans simply want it to reopen so that they and the Trump administration can continue to deploy their virtually unlimited power over federal policy, personnel, and spending. Democrats know their ability to interrupt appropriations with a Senate filibuster is their one and only source of leverage over national policy until the midterms, when they hope to break the GOP trifecta."

"Both parties go into the shutdown mostly united and fully prepared to spin, spin, spin, with Democrats focused on expiring Obamacare premium subsidies and Medicaid cuts and Republicans making up fables about the trillions of dollars in health-care benefits Democrats want to give illegal immigrants. The soft underbelly of Democratic resistance is the same group of Senate Democrats who voted to avoid a shutdown back in March ( three of them voted in favor of the Republican measure to keep the government open late yesterday);"

Both parties entered the shutdown deliberately, having rejected last-minute negotiations. Democrats demand multiple concessions before reopening, using the Senate filibuster as their primary leverage until the midterms. Republicans insist on reopening to restore executive and federal control under the Trump administration and believe their policy package can be politically framed against Democrats. Both parties intend aggressive messaging: Democrats on expiring Obamacare subsidies and Medicaid cuts; Republicans alleging expansive health benefits for illegal immigrants. Vulnerabilities exist on both sides: some Senate Democrats previously voted to avoid shutdown, while swing-state Republicans fear premium spikes and hardliners seek to repeal Obamacare. President Donald Trump remains the unpredictable factor.

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