The US economy is facing heightened fears of recession, with leading economist Torsten Sløk estimating a 90% chance of entering a downturn. This analysis reflects ongoing trade tensions and tariff impacts that have raised concerns among economists. The last recession in the US occurred in 2020, and indicators such as shrinking GDP, declining real income, and rising unemployment remain critical to defining economic health. Tariffs imposed by the Trump administration further exacerbate worries about economic stability, particularly for small businesses.
Torsten Slök stated that there is now a 90% chance of the US experiencing a "Voluntary Trade Reset Recession." This stark prediction is influenced by current tariff policies.
In his note, Slök emphasized, "Tariffs have been implemented in a way that has not been effective," indicating the negative impact on small businesses that lack the capital to cope.
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