Gold and Bitcoin go through the roof as U.S. shutdown forces investors to trade in the dark | Fortune

"Most notes from Wall Street analysts this morning are bemoaning the lack of official macroeconomic data coming from the U.S.: The U.S. departments of Labor and Commerce will not publish any data until the shutdown is ended. That means, through October 16, at least 12 data releases-including the producer price index (inflation), nonfarm payrolls (jobs), and unemployment-won't happen. Without official data to guide them, investors have adopted a split personality approach: risk-on and risk-off at the same time."

"The price of gold is up 50% year to date, (it was $3,966.80 this morning on the Comex continuous contract index). Gold is usually regarded as a safe haven asset-suggesting investors are fearful. Bitcoin went over $125,000 per coin yesterday and is reapproaching that all-time high this morning. Oddly, Wall Street now seems to regard Bitcoin as a "safe" alternative to stocks, akin to gold, even though it is incredibly volatile."

"Investors are behaving this way because they are worried that government debt in U.S., Japan, and Europe is too high, according to Bloomberg, and are thus fleeing to assets that aren't affected by falling currency prices. There's a simpler explanation, Luca Paolini, chief strategist at Pictet Asset Management, told the Financial Times: Momentum trading. Gold has gone up so much this year that investors are simply piling onto the runaway train. "It's gold-plated Fomo," he told the FT."

There is a 67% probability the U.S. federal government shutdown will exceed 10 days, delaying at least 12 key U.S. macroeconomic data releases through October 16, including the producer price index, nonfarm payrolls, and unemployment. In the absence of official data, investors have adopted a split approach: optimistic on equities while flocking to safe havens. S&P 500 futures rose after a record close, while gold surged toward $4,000 per troy ounce, up 50% year-to-date. Bitcoin climbed above $125,000 and is nearing its all-time high, with some treating it as a safe alternative. Concerns about high government debt and momentum trading are driving these flows.

Read at Fortune