"If [these races] are a test of Donald Trump, then Donald Trump can't be too happy with what we're seeing in the data right now, Enten told CNN's Erica Hill."
"In New Jersey, he said, I know a lot of Republicans want to think that [former State Representative] Jack Ciattarelli is closing the gap, but in all honesty, what we see there is that the Democratic candidate, [Rep.] Mikie Sherrill has a clear advantage about six points. That's the closest of the three races we're talking about. In Virginias gubernatorial race, he continued, you see [Democratic candidate] Abigail Spanberger way up there by double digits up by 10 points against Republican candidate and the Virginia Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears."
"Lastly, Enten emphasized that Zohran Mamdani, the Democratic candidate in the NYC mayoral race, is ahead in the polls by 16 points over former Governor Andrew Cuomo and even further ahead of Republican candidate Curtis Sliwa. At this point in time, he concluded, it seems like the Democrats are most likely going to sweep all three of those races. That's in part because of Donald Trump. Enten went on to stress how rare it is for Democrats to sweep all three of these races, finding only five instances in the past 90 years. The five times that I mentioned that the Democrats swept all of those races, he said, each and every time the following year, they won a majority in the U.S. House of Representatives. If Democrats sweep on Tuesday, said Enten, it, in my opinion, is a very good sign, looking forward to 2026 and taking that majority back from Republicans."
Aggregate polling data shows Democratic advantages across three key races: Mikie Sherrill leads in New Jersey by about six points, Abigail Spanberger leads in Virginia by roughly ten points, and Zohran Mamdani leads the NYC mayoral race by about sixteen points. These margins make a Democratic sweep of all three contests likely. Historical precedents show only five Democratic sweeps in the past 90 years, and each prior sweep preceded a Democratic House majority the following year. A Democratic sweep would be interpreted as favorable momentum toward recapturing the U.S. House in 2026.
Read at www.mediaite.com
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