"It's not so much that Democrats have been winning; it's by how much they have been winning. For example, in a special election for a Virginia Congressional seat, the winner, James Walkinshaw, won by a 50-point margin. By comparison, Kamala Harris carried the same district by 34 points. Similarly, last April in two special Congressional elections in Florida, the Democratic candidates overperformed Harris by 16 and 23 points (but not enough to win the open seats)."
"These results suggest that while Democratic voters weren't thrilled with last year's presidential campaign, they are certainly united in their disdain for Donald Trump and his Republican Party. Special elections usually have a low turnout, so a lot of voters are making a real effort to make their feelings known. The two gubernatorial elections this year will be seen as a test of Democrats' willingness to send a message to the White House."
Odd-year elections include special and gubernatorial contests that can presage midterm dynamics. Several recent special elections showed strong Democratic overperformance relative to 2020 presidential margins, including a 50-point win in a Virginia congressional special and notable overperformance in two Florida specials. Low-turnout special contests have produced pronounced Democratic margins, suggesting energized voters expressing opposition to Donald Trump and Republican positions. This year’s gubernatorial races, especially in Virginia where a flip is possible, will function as tests of Democratic willingness to send a message to the White House. Republicans face candidate weaknesses in some contests.
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