"For years, pundits assumed Latinos were a lock for Democrats. President Obama's 44-point lead with these voters in 2012 cemented the narrative: "Shifting demographics" (shorthand for more nonwhite voters) would doom Republicans. But 2016, and especially the 2024 elections, shattered that idea. A year ago, Trump lost the Latino vote by just 3 points, down from 25 in 2020, according to Pew. Trump carried Texas counties within 20 miles of the border, a majority-Latino region."
"To counter Republican gerrymanders in Texas, Gov. Gavin Newsom and California Democrats pushed their own redistricting plans, hoping to send more Democrats to the House. They too are banking on Latino support - but that's not a sure bet."
"Imperial County offers a cautionary tale. This border district is 86% Latino, among the poorest in California, and has long been politically overlooked. It was considered reliably blue for decades; since 1994, it had backed every Democratic presidential candidate until 2024, when Trump narrowly won the district."
A California special election aimed to counter Texas Republicans' gerrymandering efforts and both parties are now competing for Latino voters. Historic Latino support for Democrats—exemplified by Obama's 44-point 2012 advantage—eroded after 2016 and narrowed further by 2024, with Pew estimating Trump lost the Latino vote by just 3 points. Texas Republicans are redrawing districts to limit Democratic representation, while California Democrats advanced redistricting to boost House seats. Imperial County, 86% Latino and among the state's poorest, flipped to Trump in 2024 after decades of Democratic backing. Local leaders point to leadership, values, and economic concerns driving the shift.
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