Polling in New Jersey and Virginia shows Democrats leading in the gubernatorial matchups between Jack Ciattarelli and Mikie Sherrill, and between Winsome Earle-Sears and Abigail Spanberger. Prediction markets also favor the Democrats in both states. The polls were described as a flashing red siren for Republicans due to a historical trend: since 1989, when the same party won both New Jersey and Virginia gubernatorial elections, that party went on to win the U.S. House of Representatives the following year six of seven times. Given current Democratic leads in both states, history suggests Democrats may be positioned to reclaim the U.S. House in 2026.
ENTEN: Why should people nationally care? Why am I saying it's a flashing red siren for Republicans? If the same party has won in New Jersey and Virginia gubernatorial races, dating back since 1989, guess who won the U.S. House the following years? Six out of seven times, the same party wins nationally and they win the U.S. House of Representatives if, in fact, they win in both Virginia and New Jersey.
ENTEN: Exactly right because the bottom line is this: if you're not a resident of Virginia and New Jersey, why should you care? It's because nationally, these races do in fact have predictive power if in fact the same party wins in both of those states; and currently, Democrats are favored to win in both, and history suggests, therefore six out of seven times they are predicted to in fact win the U.S. House of Representatives the following year.
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