California consumer confidence has increased since April, reaching a six-month high while remaining 22% below October pre-election levels and 5% below the index's average since 2007. Statewide confidence rose 18% from April's low as trade-policy fears eased and some anticipated tariff-driven price increases did not materialize. The present-situation index is at a three-month high, up 14% since April and 15% above average in August, yet 8% below pre-election readings. The expectations index is 21% higher since April but 34% worse since October and 21% below the nineteen-year average. National confidence has rebounded modestly.
Statewide, confidence has risen 18% since April's recent low when fears peaked as President Donald Trump unveiled an aggressive trade policy that unraveled years of international economic serenity. Some of the predicted fallout of higher tariffs, such as sharply rising prices of consumer goods, has yet to materialize. Don't forget that this is a state with a decidedly different global view than Trump's. So, the summer uptick in California optimism does not signal full acceptance of the administration's thinking.
A peek inside the index shows how the economic emotions are evolving. Californians' view of current conditions - the "present situation" index - is at a three-month high. It's up 14% since April, yet it's down 8% since pre-election October. Still, August's reading was 15% above average. It's the future that is very cloudy. California's "expectations" index was off 3% in June but is 21% higher since April. However, the Golden State's future view is 34% worse since October and is 21% below the 19-year average.
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