"Democrats Mikie Sherrill in New Jersey and Abigail Spanberger in Virginia regained significant ground among two groups where Trump made noteworthy advances last year: working-class people of color and young people, according to both media exit polls and county-by-county election results. The two Democrats also improved among college-educated voters, essentially matching the party's 2024 showing with White voters and improving among non-White voters with a four-year degree, according to the Voter Poll conducted by SRSS for a consortium of media organizations."
"All those groups also provided huge margins for Proposition 50, the redistricting ballot initiative backed by Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom, which passed convincingly in California. Even the most optimistic Democrats don't contend that Tuesday's results prove the party has solved its problems with those voting blocs. Since the 1970s, New Jersey and Virginia have almost always elected governors from the party that lost the presidential race the previous year."
"And Trump's 2024 gains among blue-collar minority voters were concentrated among irregular voters who are the least likely to show up for an odd-year election. Undurable realignment But the Democratic wins do signal that exuberant Republican predictions after 2024 that Trump had engineered a durable realignment, particularly among working-class Hispanic, Black and Asian American voters were premature. Instead, Tuesday's results signal that many voters in all the constituencies that moved toward Trump in 2024 remain within reach for both parties."
Democratic victories in Virginia and New Jersey repaired significant 2024 coalition losses by regaining ground with working-class people of color and young voters. The two winners also improved among college-educated voters, matching the party's 2024 showing with White voters and improving among non-White voters with four-year degrees, per SRSS polling. Proposition 50, a redistricting measure backed by Governor Gavin Newsom, passed decisively in California. Historical voting patterns and the concentration of Trump’s 2024 gains among irregular voters temper claims of a permanent realignment. The results indicate many shifted constituencies remain contestable.
#gubernatorial-elections #voter-coalition-shifts #working-class-voters-of-color #redistricting-proposition-50
Read at www.mercurynews.com
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