"America is roughly a 33-33-33 nation. Roughly a third of voters are die-hard Democrats, and another third are die-hard Republicans. The other third (or slightly more) are perpetually open-minded and persistently dissatisfied with the new party in power. This dynamic has held firm for most of the past 30 years and shows no obvious signs of shifting. Almost every election since Clinton has flipped control of the White House or Congress."
"The number of truly competitive House races is shockingly small - roughly 10% of the 435 House seats, give or take. You can thank redistricting at the state level for meticulously chopping the nation into safe havens for very partisan Republicans or Democrats. That means the most important races are often primaries, where voter turnout is low and dominated by activists. Hence, the dominance of hyperpartisans."
American electoral behavior is characterized by three durable dynamics that drive rapid swings in governing power. About one-third of voters are committed Democrats, another third committed Republicans, and the remaining roughly third remain open-minded and often dissatisfied with the new ruling party. State-level redistricting has produced very few truly competitive House seats, shifting the decisive contests into low-turnout primaries dominated by activists and producing hyperpartisan candidates. Major policy wins take years to translate into voters' lived experiences, so governing parties often appear to overreach before benefits are felt. The combination produces frequent party turnover and strategic instability for business planning.
Read at Axios
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