America's people shortage is about to get real. Colleges, companies, and cities are unprepared.

US birth rates peaked in 2007 at just over 4.3 million births and have fallen nearly every year, reaching 3.8 million in 2017 and 3.6 million last year. The 2007 cohort is now entering adulthood, reducing the pool of college applicants and available new workers. Shrinking demographics combined with retiring baby boomers are projected to produce a shortfall of about 6 million workers by 2032, stressing sectors like healthcare and agriculture and shrinking contributions to Social Security as retiree numbers rise. Responses include institutional recruitment efforts, calls for multiple simultaneous policy actions, and incentives such as a $1,000 investment account per newborn in a proposed policy.

Now, those 2007 babies are turning 18 (ugh, I know). As they prepare to start college and enter the workforce, their transition to adulthood signals a new reality for universities, employers, and the whole of America's economy. Every year from here on out - at least for the foreseeable future - colleges will face a smaller and smaller pool of prospective students and companies will see a drop-off in the number of potential workers.

Before long, industries that are already grappling with worker shortages such as healthcare and agriculture could reach a point of crisis. A report by the labor market analytics firm Lightcast found that the joint forces of baby boomers retiring and shrinking demographics will create a deficit of 6 million workers by 2032. That also means there will be fewer people contributing to Social Security while the number of retirees grows.

Nathan Grawe, a Carleton College economics professor who is widely credited for coining the term 'demographic cliff,' says the problem will need to be attacked from multiple angles at once. "It won't be solved by one silver bullet." Incentivizing Americans to have more kids has become a popular political talking point, particularly on the right. As part of Donald Trump's "One Big Beautiful Bill," parents will now receive a $1,000 investment account for every new baby they have between 2024 and 2028.

Read at Business Insider