"With U.S. national debt now topping $37.8 trillion and interest payments exceeding $1.2 trillion, Kelly said the debt-to-GDP ratio-already at 99.9%-will likely keep rising even under moderate growth. Despite tariff revenues and temporary deficit relief, he cautioned that political choices or a slowdown could quickly worsen the fiscal picture, urging investors to diversify away from U.S. assets before "going broke slowly" turns fast."
"But the pair then famously fell out over the White House's One Big Beautiful Bill act, which the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimated will add another $3.4 trillion to the national debt over the next decade. The White House countered its tariff regime will offset the spending and any decrease in revenues due to tax cuts. The CBO estimates that tariffs should reduce total deficits by $4 trillion by 2035."
U.S. federal debt has risen above $37.8 trillion, with interest payments exceeding $1.2 trillion and a debt-to-GDP ratio near 99.9%. The ratio is likely to keep increasing even under moderate growth, adding sustained fiscal pressure. Temporary offsets such as tariff revenues and short-term deficit relief provide limited relief. Proposed legislation could add trillions to deficits while the CBO projects tariff measures could cut deficits by $4 trillion through 2035. Political choices or an economic slowdown could quickly worsen the fiscal picture. Elevated sovereign risk suggests investors should consider diversifying away from U.S. assets to mitigate potential shocks.
Read at Fortune
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