"The ratings change was one of two updates Thursday from Sabato's Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia. It shifted the Florida U.S. Senate to "likely Republican," from its previous status as "safe Republican." And it shifted the reelection prospects of U.S. Jon Ossoff, D-Georgia, from "toss up" to "leans Democratic." Overall, the analysis concluded, Republicans are still likely to maintain control of the U.S. Senate after this year's midterm elections."
"The reason for the Florida shift: the entrance into the race on Tuesday of Vindman, the retired Army lieutenant colonel who provided critical evidence for the first impeachment of President Donald Trump during his first term in office. Vindman and his family now live in Broward County. "Democrats did just get a candidate there who at the very least is going to raise a boatload of money," wrote Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato's Crystal Ball, in his review of U.S. Senate races."
Sabato's Crystal Ball shifted the Florida U.S. Senate rating from "safe Republican" to "likely Republican" after Alexander Vindman entered the 2026 race. The analysis also moved Senator Jon Ossoff's reelection prospects from "toss up" to "leans Democratic." Vindman, a retired Army lieutenant colonel who testified during President Trump's first impeachment, lives in Broward County and raised $1.7 million from 36,000 donations in his first 24 hours. Kyle Kondik noted Vindman will raise substantial money but said Florida's rightward shift and other factors mean more than fundraising is needed to make the race competitive. Republicans remain likely to retain Senate control.
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