The article argues that Israel's extensive operations against Iranian nuclear infrastructure will not succeed in permanently dismantling Iran's nuclear capabilities. This is due to the depth and resilience of its facilities, such as the Fordow and Natanz sites, which are designed to withstand military strikes. Advanced U.S. munitions may fail against layers of rock and the decentralized nature of Iran's nuclear program. Even past cyber attacks, like Stuxnet, demonstrate that Iran has adapted and fortified its systems. Attack risks include the potential for aerosolizing enriched uranium during strikes, highlighting the intricacies of halting Iran’s nuclear ambitions.
The U.S. GBU-57A/B Massive Ordnance Penetrator can penetrate reinforced concrete, but the deep mountain rock surrounding Fordow scatters blast effects, reducing impact.
Iran’s nuclear system is strategically designed not only to survive airstrikes, but also to endure them legally and doctrinally, complicating any decisive military action.
Strikes on cascade halls or storage vaults may accidentally aerosolize enriched uranium, representing a significant risk during any kinetic operation against Iran's nuclear infrastructure.
Iran's nuclear program has evolved into a compartmentalized and redundant strategy since 2003, further complicating the potential for any successful military strike.
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