"Sir Isaac Newton never studied crime, but he says 'What goes up must come down,'"
"The current drop in numbers is more likely what statisticians call a 'regression to the mean,' he said, representing a return to more average crime levels after an unusual spike in mass killings in 2018 and 2019."
"Will 2026 see a decline? Fox asked. I wouldn't bet on it. What goes down must also go back up."
"Because there's only a few dozen mass killings in a year, a small change could look like a wave or a collapse, when really it's just a return to more typical levels, Densley said. 2025 looks really good in historical context, but we can't pretend like that means the problem is gone for good."
Mass killings in 2025 reached 17 incidents, the lowest annual total since 2006 according to the AP–USA Today–Northeastern database. The database counts incidents with four or more people killed in 24 hours, excluding the attacker. Analysts note the drop likely reflects regression to the mean after spikes in 2018 and 2019 and caution that rarity of such events makes year-to-year totals volatile. Reported declines this year amount to roughly 24% from 2024 and about 20% from 2023. Broader decreases in homicide and violent crime may also be contributing factors, but the trend may not be permanent.
Read at Fast Company
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