"On Wednesday morning, ADP announced that private payrolls had decreased by a staggering 32,000 in the month of September. That decreased, as noted in a CNBC report, marked the largest decrease since March 2023. Additionally, a revision to the August payroll revealed a loss of 3,000. It was previously reported that private sector increased payrolls by 54,000 an August a 57,000-job swing."
"Well, the reason I think that people are paying attention to it today is, first of all, we're not going to likely get that government jobs report on Friday; but also, look at the correlation. The direction is, it's in the right mode. They dip at the same time. They rise at the same time. I think it gives you a good sense, at the very least, of the trend on job growth."
ADP reported a 32,000 decline in private payrolls in September, the largest drop since March 2023. August private payrolls were revised from a 54,000 increase to a 3,000 loss, a 57,000-job swing that weakens recent growth estimates. The federal government's monthly jobs report may be delayed by a government shutdown, leaving ADP as a timely indicator. ADP covers only the private sector, but its directional correlation with the traditional government payrolls—dipping and rising together—gives a useful read on momentum. The combined data point to a softening labor market and greater employer caution on hiring and pay.
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