Forecasters expect slightly fewer hurricanes than usual this year, but the risk of destructive storms is still high

The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season is expected to have slightly fewer storms than average, with 8 to 14 storms forming between June 1 and November 30. The average Atlantic season has about 14 storms. Of the forecast storms, 3 to 6 are expected to become hurricanes, and 1 to 3 are expected to become major hurricanes with winds capable of severe damage. Abnormally warm Atlantic water increases the likelihood that a very large, destructive hurricane will form. Tens of millions of people across the eastern and southern United States, including inland areas, face threats from heavy rain flooding, wind damage, and coastal storm surge. Impacts can extend far inland, as past storms caused deadly flooding well away from landfall locations.

"Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center expect slightly fewer storms than average during the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season. But abnormally warm water in the Atlantic makes it more likely that at least one very large, destructive hurricane will form. Tens of millions of people live in places that are threatened by flooding from heavy hurricane-driven rain, wind damage and coastal storm surge."

"The official 2026 forecast calls for 8 to 14 storms in the Atlantic between June 1 and November 30. The average number of storms for an Atlantic hurricane season is 14. Of the storms that form, 3 to 6 are expected to be full-blown hurricanes, which have higher wind speeds than tropical storms. One to 3 of those are forecast to be major hurricanes, which have winds powerful enough to bring down trees and power poles, remove shingles from roofs and destroy some mobile homes."

""Even though we're expecting a below-average season in the Atlantic, it's very important to understand that it only takes one," says Neil Jacobs, who leads the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. "We have had major hurricanes make landfall during below-average seasons." And even relatively weak storms have the potential to cause deadly flooding far from the coast, as recent storms have made devastatingly clear."

""The impacts don't stop at the coast," says National Weather Service director Ken Graham. "The impacts go way inland. And we've seen that over and over and over a" States in the southeast are still recovering from Hurricane Helene, which no longer packed hurricane-strength winds when it arrived in Appalachia in 2024, but nonetheless caused massive flooding. In 2021, flash-flooding killed dozens of people in the Midatlantic and Northeast, thousands of miles from where Hurricane Ida made landfall in Louisiana."

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