Tuesday’s Iowa primary elections begin a sprint to November featuring three competitive House races and a Senate race that will influence control of both congressional chambers. The open governor race is among the few nationally viewed as capable of changing party hands. President Trump faces record-low approval, rising gas prices, an unpopular war in Iran, and affordability concerns, while Republicans have removed several lawmakers who crossed him in recent primaries. Democrats face a historically unpopular national brand but show rising primary turnout enthusiasm, special-election overperformance, and a polling advantage five months before Election Day. Republicans cite recent governing wins, including falling illegal immigration, drastic crime reductions, and passage of the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act,” plus state-level gains such as rising test scores.
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