In 2024, underdogs recorded 231 outright upsets in FBS-vs.-FBS matchups and won 29.0% of regular-season games, both FBS-era records. Home underdogs won 33.0% of their games, the highest rate since 2004. The average point spread tightened to 10.44, a 40-year low, marking the sixth consecutive season of declining spreads and raising the implied probability of upsets. Underdogs covered the spread in 51.2% of games. Games went over the total 52.1% of the time, a record in ESPN Research's database, with average scoring at 53.6 points versus sportsbook totals of 52.1. Betting interest spiked around high-profile coaches, with Deion Sanders driving heavy public bets at Colorado while Bill Belichick generated less comparable betting interest at North Carolina.
In 2024, underdogs enjoyed their most successful regular season ever in the modern college football era. Underdogs pulled off 231 outright upsets in FBS-vs.-FBS matchups and won 29.0% of games during the last regular season. Both marks are records for any season in the FBS era (1978), according to ESPN Research. Home underdogs were especially successful, winning 33.0% of games, the highest mark since 2004.
The slew of upsets occurred during a season in which the average point spread tightened to 10.44, a 40-year low. It was the sixth consecutive season that the average point spread in FBS-vs.-FBS matchups dropped, increasing the implied probability of upsets. The smaller lines did their job, however, with underdogs covering the spread in a very even 51.2% of games.
Collection
[
|
...
]