Attempting to predict the economy in 2026

"But The New York Times was there. And Fisher, then one of the more respected economists in the nation, decided to make a bold prediction that would prove to have comically bad timing. Fisher declared that stock prices had reached "what looks like a permanently high plateau." Within two weeks, the stock market would crash spectacularly, ushering in the Great Depression. Ouch."

"In more recent years, economic forecasters haven't been exactly hitting it out of the park either. They've consistently predicted that the economy would do worse than it actually did. Like when many thought that the pandemic recession would be long and painful. In reality, it was the shortest recession in U.S. history. And who can forget the seeming constant predictions that another recession was just around the corner?"

A 1929 pronouncement that stock prices had reached a "permanently high plateau" preceded a swift market crash and the Great Depression. Economic forecasters have frequently erred, often predicting worse outcomes than occurred. The pandemic recession proved much shorter than widely expected. Repeated recession warnings during recent policy shifts have not materialized. Economic growth has often been K-shaped, with wealthier Americans and tech-related firms gaining while poorer Americans struggle. Professional forecasters generally predict no recession in 2026 and moderate growth, but historical errors and uneven growth patterns create significant uncertainty around those projections.

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