"The season's most destructive hurricane, Melissa, was one of the strongest Atlantic storms ever. It slammed Jamaica with 185 mph winds, devastating communities and killing dozens of people. A week before the hurricane made landfall, however, forecast models disagreed on where it would go. One model that got it right accurately predicting Melissa's path and its category 5 intensity was a new one: Google's DeepMind AI-based hurricane model."
"Artificial intelligence has been used in weather forecast models for some time. Google's DeepMind, though, marks a significant step forward, one that suggests AI may soon overtake the physics-based models meteorologists have long relied on. Models like the Global Forecast System the GFS developed by NOAA, are based on equations that calculate how wind, moisture and heat move around in the atmosphere. The models utilize these equations to predict what might happen in the atmosphere, including the track and intensity of hurricanes."
"AI models like Google's DeepMind, on the other hand, don't know anything about physics but focus instead on history. "They have been developed to go back and look at historical records and tease out patterns and relationships about what has happened in the past in very subtle ways that a person could not extract on their own," Franklin says."
An active Atlantic hurricane season produced 13 named storms and three category 5 hurricanes, with no U.S. landfalls for the first time in a decade. The season's most destructive storm, Melissa, reached category 5 strength with 185 mph winds, devastating Jamaica and killing dozens. Forecast models disagreed about Melissa's track a week before landfall, but Google's DeepMind AI model accurately predicted its path and peak intensity. Former National Hurricane Center branch chief James Franklin judged DeepMind the best guidance of the year. Traditional models like NOAA's GFS rely on physics-based equations, while AI models derive predictions from historical data patterns. DeepMind's performance suggests AI may soon overtake physics-based meteorological models.
Read at www.npr.org
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