"Oxford Economics warned that America's heavy reliance on tech investment leaves its economy vulnerable if the sector slows. Lead economist Adam Slater said U.S. GDP would have "barely grown" this year without tech, and a downturn could pull growth below 1% in 2026 while dragging global output lower. Though exposure is less severe than during the dot-com crash, Slater cautioned that U.S. households' record stock holdings heighten the risk of financial strain if valuations fall."
"There may be some divided opinion among economists about the trajectory of the U.S. economy, but one thing they can agree on is that the tech sector-namely its investment-has been the engine driving U.S. growth. Investors, whether they're businesses or individuals, have had a lot to get excited about in recent years. The rapid interest and development into artificial intelligence has reshaped expectations about how efficiently businesses can operate and what the working world will look like as a result."
Heavy reliance on tech investment leaves the U.S. economy vulnerable to a sector slowdown. Without tech investment, U.S. GDP would have barely grown in H1 2025, and a tech downturn could push growth below 1% in 2026 while reducing global output. Record household stock holdings increase the risk of financial strain if tech valuations fall. Rapid investment in artificial intelligence has raised efficiency expectations and fueled strong corporate and individual investment. Historical precedent from the dot‑com bubble shows that exuberant tech cycles can erase trillions in market value. Economists warn that parts of the current cycle may represent a bubble.
Read at Fortune
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