"Democrats and Republicans spent much of the past year engaged in a gerrymandering competition. The race was to reshape the maps pushed into overtime by the U.S. Supreme Court's decision in , which invited another round of Republican gerrymanders. As a result, the GOP could lose the national House popular vote by a significant margin and still hang onto control of the chamber."
"In the states that have enacted new maps over the past year, the number of seats where the presidential margin was within 10 points in the 2024 election dropped from 28 to 22, according to a POLITICO analysis. It's the continuation of a long trend: Previous rounds of gerrymandering over the last two decades have aggressively whittled away at battleground districts."
"Before the 2011 round of redistricting, there were approximately 143 competitive seats across the country that were within 10 points at the presidential level in 2008, according to data from the Daily Kos. Afterward, there were approximately 119 seats in that range left. In 2020, there were 93 seats within 10 points at the presidential level; after redistricting in 2021, that number fell to 79."
"With this year's gerrymanders not quite done, a good indicator of the shrinking House battleground is Cook Political Report's forecasts, which currently show only 35 House races as really competitive (either tossups or leaning to one party or the other). Meanwhile, 372 of the 435 House seats (188 held by Republicans, 184 by Democrats) are rated by Cook as "safe" or not facing real competition at all."
Democrats and Republicans have spent the past year reshaping congressional maps through gerrymandering. The Supreme Court’s decision prompted additional Republican map changes, allowing Republicans to retain House control even if they lose the national House popular vote by a large margin. Democrats remain uneasy because fewer U.S. House districts are competitive than in the past, and new maps further shrink the battleground. In states that enacted new maps over the past year, seats with presidential margins within 10 points fell from 28 to 22. Over multiple redistricting cycles, competitive seats within 10 points declined from about 143 in 2008 to about 119 after 2011, then to about 93 in 2020 and about 79 after 2021. Cook Political Report currently rates only 35 House races as competitive, while 372 of 435 seats are rated safe.
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