Recent economic indicators show a decline in US GDP, alongside falling consumer sentiment and business optimism. Despite these signs, experts like Claudia Sahm and Paul Krugman suggest a recession isn't imminent. Sahm notes policies and adjustments need to be managed, while Krugman emphasizes the importance of not overreacting to early GDP data. Both agree on potential economic slowdowns but differ in urgency and severity of a possible recession. Thus, the outlook remains uncertain, with caution advised regarding future economic direction.
"At the end of the day, it'll depend on what these policies are, but I don't think a recession is imminent." - Claudia Sahm, chief economist at New Century Advisors.
"Remember, measured GDP shrank in the 1st quarter of 2022, and that didn't presage a recession - in fact, that was probably just statistical noise." - Paul Krugman.
"Tariffs always raise prices, and the effects of the trade war could be disastrous for economic health." - Paul Krugman.
"Even if there isn't a recession in 2025, the economy is likely to slow, and people will have to get used to some adjustments." - Claudia Sahm.
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