Polymarket and Kalshi midterm markets show strong trader expectations for a Democratic sweep of both the House and Senate in 2026. Polymarket reports $7,038,176 in total trading volume, with a full Democratic sweep priced at 47 cents, implying a 47% probability. A split outcome with a Republican Senate and Democratic House is priced at 34%, while a full Republican sweep is priced at 19%. A Democratic Senate with a Republican House is priced near 1.7%. Kalshi shows $5,546,744 in volume, with a Democratic sweep priced at 45%. Split outcomes and near-impossible combinations are priced similarly. Market settlement relies on official congressional records or verified media calls, and implied probabilities align with polling. Trump job approval averages around 36–40% in May 2026, with multiple polls placing approval near 34–37% and disapproval near 58–62%.
"The New York Times and Siena College described their May result, also at 37% approve and 59% disapprove, as a second-term low for Trump. Congressional Republicans are faring no better. A Gallup survey from April 2026 placed Congress at"
#2026-us-midterms #political-betting-markets #congressional-control #polling-and-approval-ratings #polymarket-and-kalshi
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