How the Talarico-Paxton race could play out

Talarico’s campaign raised more than $3 million in 24 hours after Paxton defeated John Cornyn in the Tuesday runoff, marking the biggest single-day haul. A nonpartisan elections forecaster moved the race from “likely Republican” to “lean Republican” following Paxton’s victory. The contest is not expected to be a small special election, and Paxton has previously won statewide elections three times. Republicans have also swept every statewide election in Texas since 1996. Talarico’s fundraising strength could let the campaign set the general-election narrative early, while the Senate Republican campaign arm must re-engage donors after spending for Cornyn. Key factors include establishment Republican support, Black voter turnout, potential influence from Joe Rogan, and whether Talarico’s populist message resonates amid rising prices.

"Talarico ratcheted up the pressure on Paxton Thursday, announcing his campaign had raised more than $3 million in the 24 hours after Paxton defeated longtime U.S. Sen. John Cornyn in the Tuesday runoff - calling it the biggest single-day haul of the campaign."

"Cook Political Report shifted the race one notch to the left, from “likely Republican” to “lean Republican” after Paxton's victory. The U.S. Senate race will not be some small special election - and Paxton has won statewide elections three times before. Republicans also have a historical advantage in Texas, where they have swept every statewide election since 1996."

"With more money in the bank, Talarico can shape the general election campaign narrative out of the gate. The Senate Republican campaign arm spent lavishly for the Cornyn campaign and now must return to donors to ask for money for the candidate they were seeking to defeat."

"The election could hinge on the answers to these questions: Can Paxton count on the support of establishment Republicans - personified by the George W. Bush wing of the party - who supported Cornyn? Will Black voters who supported U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Dallas) in her Senate primary campaign turn out for Talarico? Will Austin-based podcaster Joe Rogan ... go to bat for the Democrat - and will it matter? Will Talarico's populist message resonate amid rising prices - and Paxton's familiar culture warfare?"

Read at Axios