"By the numbers: Democrats have outperformed former Vice President Harris' 2024 numbers by an average of 10.5 percentage points in the 20 state legislative districts that've held special elections this year. Democratic candidates outperformed Harris by even more - an average of 13.9 points - in the 67 state House and Senate races last year, according to The Downballot, a site that tracks state-level and congressional campaigns."
"Many Republicans trace their troubles to Trump not being on the ballot this year or in 2028. But strategists acknowledge that some of his actions - including the administration's reluctance to release more of the Epstein files - have turned off parts of his MAGA base, while energizing Democrats and anti-GOP independents. Polls have shown widespread dissatisfaction with Trump's immigration crackdown and with how he's handling the economy."
"Zoom in: A big warning sign came Jan. 31, when Democrats snatched a North Texas-based seat in the state Senate. Democrat Taylor Rehmet won the seat by 14 points in a district Trump won by 17 in 2024. Then, on Feb. 7, Democrat Chasity Verret Martinez won a South Louisiana state House district with a 24-point landslide margin. Trump had won the district by 13 points in 2024."
"On Feb. 10, a Republican won a special election for a conservative north-central Oklahoma state House district by 28 points. Trump won the district by 58 points in 2024. Since the start of the year, Republicans have suffered double-digit drop-offs from Trump's 2024 performance in state legislative elections in Northern and Central Virginia, New York City, east-central Minnesota, and southeastern Connecticut."
Democratic candidates have outperformed former Vice President Harris' 2024 numbers by an average of 10.5 percentage points in 20 state legislative special-election districts this year and by an average of 13.9 points across 67 state House and Senate races last year. Republican internal polling and independent surveys indicate a broader downturn in GOP support. Many Republicans attribute losses to Trump not being on the ballot, while strategists point to his actions — including reluctance to release more Epstein files — as alienating parts of the MAGA base and energizing Democrats and independents. Notable Democratic wins occurred in North Texas and South Louisiana, and Republicans have seen double-digit drop-offs across multiple regions.
Read at Axios
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