The article discusses insights from Pew's post-2024 election analysis, debunking the narrative that Kamala Harris lost due to an unenthusiastic Democratic base. Instead, it shows that both Trump and Biden retained similar voter turnouts, with key insights about marginal voters favoring Trump over Harris. The report emphasizes that the election outcome was influenced more by vote share rather than overall voter turnout, challenging common assumptions about voter motivations and campaign strategies following the election.
Pew found only a small Trump turnout advantage at most; 89 percent of his 2020 voters returned to the polls, as compared to 85 percent of Joe Biden's.
Eligible nonvoters preferred Trump to Harris by a 44 percent to 40 percent margin, which shows the Trump campaign's focus on marginal voters had some merit.
Had all eligible voters turned out, Trump would have won by about the same margin. The tale of 2024 is vote share rather than turnout and persuasion rather than mobilization.
The narrative that Harris lost due to an unenthusiastic Democratic base is overturned by Pew's findings which emphasize the importance of vote share in her loss.
Collection
[
|
...
]