A New York Times/Siena poll finds Democrats leading the generic congressional ballot, with 50% saying they would vote for the Democratic candidate and 39% choosing the Republican candidate. The 11-point gap is larger than the 5-point margin shown in January and larger than many recent polls tracked by RealClearPolitics. Republican strategist Karl Rove warns that redistricting may not deliver the expected advantage, noting that splitting big Democratic cities among suburban and rural Republican areas could reduce Republican margins and increase House vulnerability. The same poll shows President Donald Trump at 37% approval and 59% disapproval, consistent with other surveys in the 30s. RealClearPolitics combined approval places Trump below 40% for the first time in his second term, and CNN’s Harry Enten says inflation polling is the worst for any president.
"Respondents were asked, If the 2026 general election for Congress were held today, which party's candidate would you be more likely to vote for in your district? And 50 percent said they would back the Democratic candidate, while just 39 percent said they would pick the Republican. That 11-point spread is way up from the 5-point margin the same poll showed in January. It is also a larger split than most other recent polls have shown according to RealClearPolitics, which tracks all major polls."
"You could in essence take like here in Texas, take big cities, which are typically Democrat, and split them up among several sort of suburban and rural Republicans and thereby reduce their margin and make [House Republicans] more vulnerable in an election year, Rove said (via The Hill). Indeed, a poll showing Democrats +11 on the generic ballot suggests that Republicans in swing districts will be quite vulnerable."
"Elsewhere in the NY Times poll, President Donald Trump clocked in at a 37 percent approval rating, with 59 percent saying they disapprove. That number tracks with other recent surveys, which put Trump's approval in the 30s. The president has now, for the first time in his second term, dipped below 40 percent in the RealClearPolitics combined approval rating a number that even includes several right-leaning surveys."
"In addition, CNN's chief data analyst Harry Enten declared on Saturday that Trump is getting the worst polls ever for any president on inflation."
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