Can the Democrats Take Back the Senate?

"“What I didn't hear,” Murphy said, was anything that could be done “with a Republican President, because that's the reality of the next two years.” Turek, in response, countered that, if “we're able to win this race here in Iowa, we're looking at taking back Congress and taking back the U.S. Senate. And I think that gives us an amazing opportunity to be able to get a lot of these across the finish line.”"

"Iowa is a state where Donald Trump beat Kamala Harris by thirteen points, and where registered Republicans outnumber Democrats by nearly two hundred thousand. But Turek's answer was a serious one. Something has changed lately in the dynamics of the Democrats' drive to reclaim the Senate, or, at least, in the Party's mood. Trump's approval ratings have fallen to below forty per cent, the Iran war grinds on, and gas prices have been rising, as has inflation."

"More than that, there is a general sense of anger and suspicion about entrenched élites. A comment that Trump made last week about how much he considered Americans' financial situation when negotiating with Iran—“not even a little bit”—encapsulates how recklessly he is willing to alienate even his own supporters. Disillusionment with Trump, however, does not necessarily translate into enthusiasm for any given Democrat."

"The Party's approval ratings are at forty per cent, about the same as the G.O.P.'s. Riding a wave of outrage in an era of MAGA-inflected conspiratorial thinking is a different task than, say, hoping that a blue drift in Texas cou…"

A moderator asked two Iowa Democratic candidates what could be accomplished with a Republican president. One candidate said winning in Iowa could enable Democrats to take back Congress and the U.S. Senate, allowing major policy goals to pass. Iowa has a strong Republican registration advantage and recent presidential results favored Trump by a wide margin. Political conditions have shifted as Trump’s approval has fallen, the Iran conflict continues, and inflation and gas prices rise. Anger toward entrenched elites and suspicion of power have increased. Disillusionment with Trump does not automatically create enthusiasm for Democrats, since overall party approval remains similar to the GOP’s.

Read at The New Yorker