"The vote count at the Caerphilly by-election looked like many others. Tables were arranged in the middle of a sports hall, black ballot boxes started to arrive and the counting began. But camped out at the hall in this ex-coal mining town, known for its cheese, was a throng of journalists and photographers from London a rare sight for an election to the Welsh Parliament."
"They trailed in third place behind Plaid Cymru and Reform UK, winning just 11% of the vote. It marked Labour's first major electoral defeat in Caerphilly for 100 years. If a similar result is replicated across the whole of Wales at the Senedd election next May - which will switch to a new proportional representation voting system - then the party could face an existential threat."
The Caerphilly by-election drew an unusually large London media presence at a sports hall counting centre. Labour finished third with 11% of the vote behind Plaid Cymru and Reform UK, marking Labour's first major electoral defeat in Caerphilly in 100 years. If similar results recur across Wales at next May's Senedd election, which will adopt proportional representation, Labour could face an existential threat. Labour insiders warn that the May 2026 elections could be a tipping point for the prime minister Sir Keir Starmer. Labour has been the largest party in Wales at UK parliamentary elections since 1922 and in the Senedd since 1999.
Read at www.bbc.com
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