Why does Reform seem unassailable? Because this is party conference season, when politicos always lose the plot | Simon Jenkins

"Party conference time is when British politics goes berserk. Leaders soar and crash in a morass of cliches. Polls go mad and cataclysm always delivers the best copy. Thus, back in 1981, Margaret Thatcher was at her Blackpool conference, two years into office. Brixton was rioting, inflation was 11% and the Tories were polling at 23%. The Labour opposition was faring as badly, also at 23%."

"Whenever I recall 1981, I wonder how commentators got it so wrong. The answer: hysteria. Conferences are when the Westminster club steps down to flirt with the mob and usually loses its way. That year, Blackpool's vipers' nest was so vicious it seemed as if Thatcher could not dare return to Downing Street. Yet, she not only returned, but by the time of the Falklands war the following spring, she was on her way to total command of her party."

"The chief difference between today and 1981 is the relative weakness of Reform. Its poll share of 27% in the most recent YouGov poll is only half that of the SDP in 1981. The peculiarities of first past the post can be shown to give Reform a majority, but the slightest shift in other party support could put its majority far out of reach."

Party conferences generate exaggerated reactions, polarised commentary and transient political hysteria. In 1981 Margaret Thatcher faced low polls, riots and bleak prospects while the SDP-Liberal Alliance dominated at over 50%, yet she consolidated power after the Falklands conflict and later won elections. A strong third-party showing can mislead because first-past-the-post amplifies or diminishes parliamentary outcomes. Reform's recent 27% polling is considerably weaker than the SDP's 1981 position, and small shifts among Labour and Conservative support could prevent Reform from securing a majority. The decisive factor remains the degree of opposition fragmentation.

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