Why 2026 is Keir Starmer's make or break year

"It seems to be pretty rife!" So said Sir Keir Starmer before Christmas, when asked about speculation around his future as prime minister. He was appearing in front of senior MPs on parliament's Liaison Committee at the time and it is true that he uttered those words with a smile. Nonetheless it is extraordinary - not just that we are in this place, but that he is acknowledging it. Sir Keir is one of only two people alive to have led the Labour Party to a general election victory and a 174-seat majority at that."

"Yet just 18 months later the recurring conversation at Westminster is whether he will still be prime minister this time next year. PA Wire A fleeting observer of global politics might reasonably assume the UK should be a haven of stability: a newish government with a colossal majority and years until the next general election. Yet it is not just the prime minister, Labour MPs and their domestic political opponents who are talking about the prime minister's vulnerability - it is being noted in foreign capitals too."

"One very senior Labour figure admitted to me earlier this month, "I wouldn't insult your intelligence by trying to pretend campaigning to replace him isn't going on". This is often what I'd describe as campaigning with a small 'c' discreet conversations and planning, the vast majority a long way from the public gaze and deniable. The fulcrum of the political year ahead isn't likely to be until Thursday 7 May. On that date there will be elections to the Welsh Parliament, the Senedd, the Scottish Parliament and to many local authorities in England, all with potentially huge consequences both for how (and by whom) huge parts of the UK are run and for the career "

Sir Keir Starmer acknowledged widespread speculation about his future as prime minister despite leading Labour to a 174-seat majority. Eighteen months after the election, recurring Westminster conversation questions whether he will still hold office next year. Observers in foreign capitals are noting the perceived vulnerability. Senior Labour figures admit that discreet campaigning to replace him is under way, described as "campaigning with a small 'c'" involving private conversations and planning. The political year pivots on Thursday 7 May when elections to devolved parliaments and many English local authorities could have major consequences for governance and political careers.

Read at www.bbc.com