What a Gorton byelection win would mean for Reform, Greens and Labour

"A win for Reform UK's candidate, Matt Goodwin, would be the biggest sign yet that Nigel Farage's poll lead represents real voter intentions rather than being merely a symbol of dissatisfaction with the government. Goodwin rarely talks about Reform's politics or local issues and has repeatedly made the fight a referendum on Starmer's leadership."

"A Reform victory would also put paid to the argument advanced by Labour strategists that progressives will unite to defeat Reform when they know how to vote tactically. There would be vicious recriminations between Labour and the Greens. The latter may well be able to argue if they come second that it was Labour who split the progressive vote."

"A Green victory might be the most catastrophic result for Starmer's leadership and would show the Greens are a serious progressive force, not a protest vote. It would also show that Labour is not the automatic beneficiary of an anti-Reform alliance and would make MPs standing in urban seats fearful of the Green threat."

The Gorton and Denton byelection represents a critical test for Reform UK's electoral viability. Matt Goodwin, Reform's candidate, has centered his campaign on attacking Starmer's leadership rather than discussing local issues or party policy. Despite being ranked 440th on Reform's target list, a victory would demonstrate sustained momentum following their narrow six-vote win in Runcorn and Helsby. Reform plans to mobilize 1,000 activists to reach non-traditional voters. Goodwin's divisive online presence contrasts with previous Reform candidates. A Reform victory would undermine Labour's progressive unity strategy and trigger conflict between Labour and the Greens. Conversely, a Green victory would represent the most damaging outcome for Starmer, establishing the Greens as a serious political force and threatening Labour MPs in urban constituencies.

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