"Apologising for the cliche, Dr Jac Larner, a polling expert at Cardiff University who is from Caerphilly, said the byelection may be the canary in the coalmine for a fundamental change in the UK political landscape. If polling, which has suggested that an ailing Labour party could be pushed into third place in one of its traditional heartlands by a surge from the right in the shape of Reform UK and the left in Plaid Cymru,"
"Labour is facing an existential crisis in Wales that threatens to end over a century of political dominance, Larner said. To understand the magnitude of this collapse, consider Labour's unparalleled Welsh heritage. Wales is the home of its first leader, Keir Hardie, and its spiritual leader, Aneurin Bevan, and by the next Senedd election [in 2026] it will have been 103 years since Labour was not the largest party in a major Welsh election the longest such streak of any party anywhere in the world."
The Caerphilly byelection could be a canary in the coalmine for a fundamental change in the UK political landscape. Polling suggests Labour could be pushed into third place in a traditional heartland by a surge from Reform UK on the right and Plaid Cymru on the left. Labour faces an existential challenge in Wales despite century-long dominance rooted in figures such as Keir Hardie and Aneurin Bevan. Labour has been the largest party in major Welsh elections for 103 years. A strong Reform showing would suggest Nigel Farage's party is reshaping British politics and could enable similar advances by other parties.
Read at www.theguardian.com
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