"Viewed through the Westminster prism, UK electoral politics seems a five-party contest. The narrative has been well aired in the conference season. The three established parties Labour, Conservatives and Liberal Democrats are each battling to peg back the Reform UK surge, with the Greens hovering in the wings. In Scotland and Wales, however, there are different pictures that the Westminster prism does not see."
"Caught between the two, the established parties find themselves battling for survival. With the nationalists holding their respective annual conferences this weekend, and crucial elections next spring to the devolved parliaments, observers across the UK need to be clear. Much of the political wind in 2026 will blow from the north and the west. Next year, both the SNP and Plaid Cymru could be government parties, a familiar role for the former, but a spectacular turnaround for the latter."
UK electoral politics often appears as a five-party contest dominated by Labour, Conservatives, Liberal Democrats, Reform UK and the Greens, but Scotland and Wales display different dynamics. The Scottish National Party leads in polls while Plaid Cymru is competing head-to-head with Reform UK in Wales. Established UK parties struggle between nationalist surges and declining support. Plaid's resurgence reflects a sluggish Welsh economy, UK Labour's unpopularity, and Welsh Labour's weak record. A Senedd by-election in Caerphilly on 23 October will act as a bellwether. If current polls hold, Plaid could emerge as the largest party and enter government after May 2026.
Read at www.theguardian.com
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