British politics is stuck in a repeating pattern of leaders clinging to power while parties seek replacements. Brexit is a major contributor because promised referendum benefits have not materialized, leaving only downsides. Major changes to departure terms remain taboo in political debate. European relations have been reset only at the margins, while strategic calculations have shifted since 2016. Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine exposed complacency about defense and energy security. Donald Trump’s stance toward allies suggests the US cannot be relied on for protection, increasing urgency for European strategic autonomy. EU foreign ministers are discussing potential candidates for future negotiations with Moscow, even before negotiations exist, because prior peace efforts have been shaped by the White House and excluded Europeans.
"The spectacle of a prime minister clinging to power while his party grows increasingly desperate for a replacement is painfully familiar from the end of the last Tory government. British politics feels trapped in a loop. This condition is not wholly a result of Brexit, but the failure of that project is a significant part of it. None of the benefits promised in the referendum by the leave campaign have materialised. It is all downside, but political discussion of any significant rewriting of the terms of departure is taboo."
"Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine exposed European complacency about continental defence and energy security. Donald Trump's aggressive contempt for old allies makes it clear that they cannot depend on the US for protection. Discussions in Brussels around strategic autonomy have become increasingly urgent. A club of 27 member states is still unwieldy in decision-making, but in a world of geopolitical upheaval and increased international lawlessness, the logic of collective continental action is irresistible."
"It is significant, in this context, that EU foreign ministers are discussing potential candidates for a future negotiation with Moscow over the war in Ukraine. The former German chancellor Angela Merkel has been mooted, as has the former European Central Bank president Mario Draghi. This may seem premature when there is no negotiation yet, but that is the point."
"To the extent that there has been any kind of peace process so far, its tempo and tone have largely been set by the White House. Europeans were not invited. Mr Trump's sympathy with Vladimir Putin has made that a hazardous model for Kyiv and the rest of Europe. And that was before his limited capacity for attention on complex foreign matters was consumed by an ill-judged war in Iran."
Read at www.theguardian.com
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