Sir John Curtice: Which issues will decide the elections in Scotland and Wales?

"The poll of voters in Scotland and Wales suggests three key issues will be at the top of voters' minds when they elect their new governments in Holyrood and the Senedd. The first is the state of the economy, including above all the cost of living. The second is the performance of health and social care services. And the third is the level of immigration."

"In both Scotland and Wales, well over half say their country's economy has got worse over the last 12 months and around half feel their health service has deteriorated. Those who believe their economy or health service is getting better are decidedly thin on the ground."

"Although in both nations more people feel that having migrants from outside the UK has been good for their country than feel it has been bad, around half feel their country now needs fewer migrants coming from abroad to live here. Even among SNP and Plaid Cymru supporters, both of whose parties have taken a relatively liberal stance on immigration and asylum seekers, more would like to see the level of migration reduced than increased."

Scottish and Welsh voters prioritize three key issues in upcoming Holyrood and Senedd elections: economic conditions and cost of living, health and social care performance, and immigration levels. Older voters and women emphasize health services, while Reform voters focus on immigration. Younger voters additionally highlight housing. Across both nations, majorities report economic deterioration and health service decline over the past year. Despite more people viewing migration positively than negatively overall, approximately half believe their countries need fewer migrants. Notably, even supporters of pro-immigration parties like the SNP and Plaid Cymru, along with Labour voters, prefer reduced migration levels. This pervasive critical sentiment suggests all parties must address these concerns to succeed electorally.

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